5GW Theory Timeline

Summary:

Citing William Lind's "The Changing Face War: Into the Fourth Generation", John Robb expands the xGW framework from Lind's stopping point and into a consideration of fifth generation warfare.

Much of this new generation was derived and accelerated in cauldron of Iraq, just as the basis for 3rd generation of warfare was proved out in the Spanish Civil war.

Three key elements appear to be emerging:

• Open Source Warfare -- "This new structure doesn't only radically expand the number of potential participants, it shrinks the group size well below any normal measures of viability."
• Systems Disruption -- broad-spectrum sabotoge, perhaps often occurring as a Black Swan, may "undermine and reorder global systems."
• Virtual States -- "black globalization", or "military/economic integration" outside the normal channels protected by nation-states, may enable diverse non-state groups "to gain greater degrees of independence and financial wealth through the warfare they conduct."

The author adds a concluding note:

NOTE: Whether you call these developments 4GW on steroids or the start of a 5th generation, it just doesn't matter.