5GW Theory Timeline

Summary:

Building upon conversations on the blogs tdaxp and Coming Anarchy, CGW expands upon a comment he left on Coming Anarchy by considering how in fact 5GW forces will operate in a "nuts and bolts" fashion. Previously, most discussions of 5GW focused on the abstract or general aspects of fifth generation warfare without considering how those aspects will constrain the activities of fifth generation forces:

In comments to the thread at Coming Anarchy, Dan reintroduced the concept of greater effectiveness for succeeding generations of warfare — a 5GWarrior would, theoretically, be 20x as strong as a 4GWarrior, or able to kill (or neutralize) 20-times more 4GW opponents as a 4GWarrior would his 5GW foes. Whatever the actual number, such a concept makes sense, or else there would be no evolutionary reason for succeeding generations of warfare. But the concept makes claims which have yet to be supported in our theory of 5GW, since we do not have a clear concept of how the 5GW neutralizes 20x 4GW opponents if the two are in combat....

This is a major problem in the theory of 5GW. Although we have a working theory of broad qualities of 5GW, I wonder if we can think our way through proofs of these qualities. In Greek tragedies, some disguised god or goddess would lend a strategic hand or lay traps for the protagonist; and, in 5GW mythology, we so far have dreams of such gods and goddesses who accomplish their tasks with magic. We do not really know how they do it.

Some "god-like" actions may have merit, e.g. Katrina-like natural disasters which entirely obsess the target of those disasters. Whether such an approach is used by a 5GW force may depend upon the sophistication of the target: Will the target have the forensic capabilities and organization which will allow it to ultimately trace back the effects to the cause, should the 5GW force directly create major disasters? Generally, the ideas that 1) all effects are observable and 2) being physical, or a matter of physics, they are traceable, means that direct kinetic activities by 5GW forces are quite dangerous for them, although given the sophistication or lack thereof of the target such activities may have some use within 5GW.

Alternatively, 5GW forces may try to frame other parties when creating major disasters, to throw off pursuit and also to set up conflict between two other parties. Preferably, these other parties who are framed will be "usual suspects" -- and better yet, they will want to claim responsibility for disasters even if they had nothing to do with those disasters. Again, however, this approach may be dangerous for 5GW actors, not only because of the potential for incriminating forensic evidence but also because the framed parties may reject claims of responsibility.

However, either of the above possibilities may work even if the cause is detected or traced back to the 5GW force (or at least away from the framed party) if time-lag between the original disaster/attack and the discovery of subterfuge is great enough to have left the targets in a downward spiral from which they cannot escape or in a position of extreme weakness.

The blog post concludes from these considerations:

What things are hardest to track? Answer: memes.

Memetic engineering (though not so-called within the post) will offer the best possibility for influence and manipulation of other forces without detection. A variety of examples and possibilities are offered. The post finally answers a question implied by previous conversations on other blogs:

So, then, how could a hidden 5GW force defeat a fuzzy 4GW force? Influence it to fight another force, one it already despises — and, preferably, one it cannot defeat. Or, introduce dispute within it, of the sort that would paralyze its activities, create massive amounts of in-fighting. Or, befriend it; give it real accomplishments (perhaps by surreptitiously influencing other parties who can give them these) which, nonetheless, lead to final outcomes quite different than it originally intended. Because a 4GW force tends to be decentralized, dependent on local actors and local activities, focus on influencing them. Do not try to destroy the 4GW force; focus on changing it.

This blog post was later cross-posted to the blog Dreaming 5GW.